Acting before the crisis: The Colombian Red Cross is combining science and anticipation in its response to the El Niño phenomenon

As El Niño intensifies in the region, forecasts confirm that the time to act is now, before its effects impact the well-being of the population. History and science show that this phenomenon typically brings prolonged droughts, severe water shortages and wildfires to Colombia. 

The current climate crisis, exacerbated by pre-existing vulnerabilities, requires humanitarian efforts to invest in advance preparedness. In light of this situation, the Colombian government has declared a state of disaster in order to mobilise resources and coordinate the country's preparedness efforts.

This is precisely the approach adopted by the Colombian Red Cross and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) when we approved our Early Action Protocol (EAP) for drought in late 2024. This EAP was activated in June 2026 at the first signs of drought.  

But what does preparedness look like beyond satellite models? It translates into concrete human responses. Examples include a farmer saving their vegetables by adding water-retention agents to the soil, a rancher giving their animals nutritional supplements before the pastures dry up, and a family getting clean water at home before the local water supply runs out. 

Funded through the anticipatory action pillar of the IFRC Disaster Response Emergency Fund (IFRC-DREF), this protocol is a simplified and agile model specifically designed to release financial resources in response to crises that have not yet occurred but whose impacts are highly predictable. 

1. From weather forecast to action 

The Early Action Protocol for Drought enables local Red Cross teams to translate complex weather forecasts into operational decisions that mitigate the impact of dry seasons or droughts on vulnerable communities. 

The EAP operates based on two triggers. The first measures precipitation deficits and the second measures rising temperatures. These are measured using official data generated by the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM). The technical team continuously monitors the Standardised Precipitation Index, which tracks changes and cumulative deficits in rainfall levels, while simultaneously cross-referencing this data with temperature increase anomaly records. 

In Colombia, the precipitation forecast indicates a probability of over 50% that rainfall will be below normal from June to August. The Standardised Precipitation Index forecast, based on moderate drought, shows values equal to or below -1.4 in August 2026. 

"This deficit in precipitation leads to water stress and reduced access to water," explained Marinson Buitrago Salinas, head of disaster response and emergency operations management at the Colombian Red Cross. “This would affect production, agriculture, livestock, and communities' access to water through aqueduct systems or the community-based systems they use to obtain water.” 

By cross-referencing climate data with population density and agricultural and livestock activity, the technical analysis determined that the departments of Tolima, in the center of the country, and Cesar, on the northern Caribbean coast, are the areas of greatest exposure and vulnerability. 

2. Anticipatory actions to protect autonomy and livelihoods 

Early intervention provides people with practical tools they need to cope with the impact of climate change and avoid socioeconomic collapse. For farming families and smallholders, the loss of a single harvest or the death of livestock can lead directly to food insecurity and forced displacement. 

For this reason, the EAP focuses its efforts on 2,400 people in Tolima and Cesar, prioritising small farming families, female-headed households, and communities with limited access to basic services and social protection. 

In Tolima, interventions are designed to preserve rural livelihoods. One such action is the distribution of water-retention elements to 600 people. This product is incorporated directly into the soil to optimise water retention around plant roots, enabling crops to survive for extended periods with a fraction of the usual amount of irrigation. Nutritional blocks are also being distributed to livestock to prevent them from dying due to a lack of dry pasture.